Kerry's Campaign Shakeup
Mood:  bright
Now Playing: Tough Crowd
Topic: Politics
Bush takes a double-digit lead as Kerry campaign struggles to regroup. It's amazing what one poor poll showing will do to the Democrats. I thought that Kerry touting his Vietnam record was a mild gamble. It appears that others disagree with that strategy.

Media Bias?
Mood:  bright
Now Playing: Tough Crowd
Topic: Politics
Two points about this AP article, Lawsuit Uncovers New Bush Guard Records

"Bush's Vietnam-era service in the Texas Air National Guard has become an issue in the presidential campaign as the candidates spar over who would make the best commander in chief. Supporters of Democratic nominee John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam combat veteran, have criticized Bush for serving stateside in the National Guard."

Doesn't the AP have this backwards? Isn't it Kerry's Vietnam record that has been under attack lately?

And there's this:

"The Pentagon and Bush's campaign have claimed for months that all records detailing his fighter pilot career have been made public, but defense officials said they found two dozen new records detailing his training and flight logs after The Associated Press filed a lawsuit and submitted new requests under the public records law."

One wonders if the AP has filed a lawsuit and submitted requests for Kerry's records.

Teen Sex and TV Viewing
Mood:  chillin'
Now Playing: Brewers-Pirates
Topic: Social Issues
A recent study links TV viewing to teen sex.

"Teenagers who watch a lot of television with sexual content are twice as likely to engage in intercourse than those who watch few such programs, according to a study published today.

The study covered 1,792 adolescents aged 12 to 17 who were quizzed on viewing habits and sexual activity and then surveyed again a year later. Both regular and cable television were included.

"This is the strongest evidence yet that the sexual content of television programs encourages adolescents to initiate sexual intercourse and other sexual activities," said Rebecca Collins, a psychologist at the RAND Corporation who headed the study."

Strongest evidence yet. Admittedly not proof but strong evidence that what we watch influences our thinking. And, after all, isn't that why advertisers spend big bucks?

Other items of interest in this study:

"The RAND study identified other factors that increased the likelihood that adolescents would initiate sexual intercourse, including: being older, having older friends, getting lower grades, engaging in rule-breaking such as skipping class, and sensation-seeking.

Adolescents were less likely to initiate sexual intercourse if their parents monitored their activities, if their parents had more education, if they lived with both parents, if their parents did not approve of them having sexual relations, if they were religious, and if they were in good mental health. Adolescents with these characteristics also were less likely to see sex on television, but television viewing was related to sexual behavior even after these differences were taken into account."

Parental involvement has the result of the teens being less likely to have sex.

Finally,

"A key period of sexual exploration and development occurs during adolescence. During this time, individuals begin to consider which sexual behaviors are enjoyable, moral, and appropriate for their age group. Many teens become sexually active during this period; currently, 46% of high school students in the United States have had sexual intercourse. Although intercourse among youths is common, most sexually active teens wish they had waited longer to have sex, which suggests that sex is occurring before youths are prepared for its consequences. Additional evidence of this is provided by public health data. Each year, 1 case of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) is diagnosed for every 4 sexually active teens in the United States, and the US rate of teen pregnancy is among the highest of all industrialized countries. Unplanned pregnancies and STDs are more common among those who begin sexual activity earlier."

Waiting for to initiate sex is not a bad thing.

Obviously more studies are needed and one characteristic of studies is that one will come out (if not out already) which comes to the opposite conclusion. The study was funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

Too Right, Mate
Mood:  chatty
Now Playing: Brewers-Pirates
Topic: Just for Fun
Did the first Americans come from Australia?

"Anthropologists have stepped into a hornets' nest, revealing research that suggests the original inhabitants of America may in fact have come from what is now known as Australia.

Silvia Gonzalez from John Moores University in Liverpool said skeletal evidence pointed strongly to this unpalatable truth and hinted that recovered DNA would corroborate it.

She said there was very strong evidence that the first migration came from Australia via Japan and Polynesia and down the Pacific Coast of America."

Crikey!

Not Too Smart
Mood:  chatty
Now Playing: Brewers-Pirates
Topic: Just for Fun
Youth held for offering drugs at police party:

"A German teenager set himself up for an easy arrest when he offered to sell marijuana to guests at a party full of off-duty policeman"

Almost two days in traffic jams
Mood:  celebratory
Now Playing: Brewers-Pirates
Topic: Just for Fun
It's a Bumper-To-Bumper Life...

"The average U.S. motorist spends 46 hours each year or nearly two full days stuck in rush-hour traffic jams."

Consequently,

"Motorists wasted 5.7 billion gallons of fuel idling in traffic, the study showed."

Makes me glad I'm close enough to walk to work.

Gun Safety
Mood:  celebratory
Now Playing: Brewers-Pirates
Topic: Just for Fun
Gun safety lesson #1: Always check to make sure your weapon is unloaded.

"Monroe County Coroner David Toumey was hospitalized with a leg wound after accidentally shooting himself while trying to demonstrate gun safety.

Toumey said ... that he was demonstrating gun safety to some people at a Lake Monroe boat ramp about 11 p.m. Wednesday when he accidentally shot himself.
He said that as he checked to make sure his weapon was unloaded, the gun discharged, and a bullet struck him in his left leg."

The Democrats have their own Swifties ?
Mood:  cheeky
Now Playing: MSNBC
Topic: Just for Fun
Now Dubya has to answer for things listed here

Media Bias II?
Mood:  chillin'
Now Playing: Dick Cheney
Topic: Politics
I believe there is bias in the media. Some don't, that's their opinion. I believe there are many in the media who are biased to the left. Recent polls confirm this. There are also those who are biased to the right. The Washington Times would be one. FOX News certainly has more conservatives than other networks (Incidentally, I take "Fair and Balanced" to refer to the fact that they are going to give us the other side).

The whole subject of media bias is something that is practically unique to America. Most countries of the world have their pro- and anti-government media, especially newspapers.

Now in reference to the Swifties. It is amazing to me that there is so much effort in defending Kerry from attacks from an organization who has spent less than $200,000 (like this chart adapted from this one in the New York Times--echoed on compared to organizations that have spent millions (MoveOn.org and other left-leaning 527s). This has some interesting details by the lawyer of the Swifties on the connections of Democrats to left-leaning 527s.

Why have the ads from the Swifties been so effective? I think one reason has been the effect of the ads themselves. The ads from leftist 527s have had virtually no effect on polls. The Swifties ads and Kerry's poor response has caused a slight shift toward Bush.

Media Bias?
Mood:  chillin'
Topic: Just for Fun
An interesting post on how D-Day might have been reported, if it happened today. :^)

Economic Policy
Mood:  spacey
Now Playing: John McCain's speech (re-run on C-Span)
Topic: Economy
Ben also seems to think that I am trying to evade responsibility (or helping Dubya evade responsibility for a poor economy).

Does any one really think that the problems of the 70's and early 80's were the result of the party who controlled the presidency and Congress? Both parties had the presidency at one time. The Democrats controlled Congress. Certainly some of the policies hindered economic growth, but usually it was outside events (gas price hikes a couple of times) that were the main impetus.

Does anyone really think that it mattered who was President or which party controlled Congress that accounted for the 90's boom? Clinton was President for most of it, but it started during Bush I, and the Republicans controlled at least one house of Congress during that time.

Does any one really think the events of 9/11 had nothing to do with the last recession? It started two months after Bush took office--is he responsible? Really? Again according to the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research, the latest recession started in March, 2001 and bottomed out in November, 2001. And according to the traditional definition of a recession (two consecutive quarters of falling GDP), there was no recession. The definitions aren't mine, so don't beat me up over it. Show me something more logical.

I think we are in the process of beginning another recession, the economy being impacted once again by a spike in gas prices. I think we are already seeing it by less than stellar job numbers among other indicators that are not as robust as they should be. Is this Bush's fault also?

Now are there things governments can do to cause recessions? I think so. Poor monetary policy among other things. Are there things governments can do to influence growth? Yes, Reagan's tax cuts are a good example.

But overall, I think the influence of a President or Congress doesn't do as much as events.

John Kerry and Vietnam
Mood:  spacey
Now Playing: GOP Convention
Topic: Politics
In one of yesterday's posts, evidently I didn't explain myself well. I'll try again.

As John McCain said tonight on MSNBC, "Why are we still fighting a war that ended thirty years ago?" The Vietnam War was lost. Conservatives and liberals will forever disagree as to the justness of the war and whether it could have been won (Ben, if you want to know when the division started, I feel it was during the Vietnam Era). The whole thing about SBVfT is that they feel Kerry betrayed the troops and America by what he did when he came home. They don't care about whether his medals were earned--that's just something they can needle him with.

John Kerry is a complex person, like all of us. Sometimes we can't explain why we do something except that we felt that it was the right thing to do. I'm not concerned if Kerry thought it would pad his future political resume--who of us hasn't done something because it will look good later?

I admit to being puzzled as to why suddenly the Democrats feel that a person's military service makes him a better candidate. They didn't feel that way in 1992 or 1996.

Perhaps one day, we can put Vietnam to rest, but probably not until the baby boomer generation passes on.

Will It Ever End?
Mood:  spacey
Topic: Politics
Vietnam continues to provide ample fodder for journalists and commentators. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel had three (count 'em, three) editorials in Sunday's Crossroads section. You can read them here, here, and here.

Here are the facts as I see them:

1. Kerry was against the Vietnam War, but enlisted in the Navy, knowing it would look good on his political resume, but hoping to avoid combat.

2. He was placed in combat anyway and was awarded several medals. We may not think much of how he got them, but the fault may not be with Kerry, but rather his superior officers.

3. Upon returning to the US, he began demonstrating against the war he had been against all the time. He threw away medals (but were actually ribbons). This made those veterans who favored the war angry.

4. He either doesn't remember, or exaggerated his exploits in later years. He may have committed atrocities.

5. He is now running for president, saying that his service in Vietnam is an asset.

Did I get it right?

Many object to the exaggerations, calling them lies. Some object to his demostrations against the war and his testimony in Congress. This group includes Republicans and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Their main contention is that Kerry's wounds did not qualify him for his Purple Hearts and that he was not in Cambodia when he said he was.

Did I get that right?

Good. Can we now move on? Maybe we could talk about Kerry's record and his platform.

Recession?
Mood:  spacey
Now Playing: baseball
Topic: Economy
Ben on a comment to a recent post mentioned about four years of recession under Bush. I replied:

Four (?) years of "recession?" I don't think you're too young to remember the late 70's and early 80's. Double digit unemployment and inflation. Compared to that era this is a boom. Just as my parents thought that it did not compare to the Great Depression. We have been used to the boom of the 90's, and so this looks serious.

This goes into the whole question I'm trying to explore--how much does a President, or Congress for that matter, influence an economy. Certainly events do. If you recall the stock indices plummeted after 9/11. The airlines' ridership went into free fall, something I don't think they've completely recovered from.

Recessions are tracked by an organization called NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research).
This is what was reported by Money magazine:

"The group also said the economy might have been able to avoid a recession without the impact of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack, which all but shut down the economy for several days and has had a lasting impact on tourism, the airline industry and other businesses.

'The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession,' said a statement from the private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization."

They have also concluded that the recession ended in Nov., 2001:

"In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion."

If you take the traditional definition of recession as two successive quarters of declining GDP, we were never in a recession.

Plastic Surgeon Sucks Out Own Fat Cells
Mood:  mischievious
Now Playing: ESPN2 Behind the Scenes
Topic: Social Issues
I wonder why Ron Reagan didn't talk about this at the DNC.

"An overweight plastic surgeon performed liposuction on himself on camera to promote the potential use of stem cells that can be harvested in such operations."

From what I understand adult stem cells such as excess fat (where can I sign up?) is much more promising for finding cures than embryonic stem cells and using adult stem cells doesn't have the controversy embryonic stem cells do.

Sigh
Mood:  lucky
Now Playing: USC-Virginia Tech
Topic: Politics
Reportedly an Ohio man offered his vote for sale on EBay. "James Pengov, 36, of Elyria, said he was hoping to land enough money from selling his vote to pay medical bills."

Evidently anything is for sale anymore.

Social Security
Mood:  hug me
Topic: Economy
Paul Greenspan, once again has repeated warnings of "abrupt and painful" choices, if Congress doesn't act to make changes in Social Security.

"Greenspan, as he has done previously, suggested that possible changes would be raising the retirement age to receive full Social Security benefits, which currently is gradually increasing from 65 to 67."

Social Security is a touchy issue for many. I'm not convinced that President Bush's idea of taxpayers using part or all of their current FICA deductions to fund an independent retirement fund would work, but certainly raising the retirement age is feasible. People are living longer and are healthier. In many cases, they can work beyond 65 with no problem. Greenspan himself is 78.

Give Up the Gold
Mood:  bright
Now Playing: News
Topic: Sports
US gold medalist and Waukesha, WI resident Paul Hamm was asked to give up his gold medal:

"World gymnastics officials asked Paul Hamm to give up his gold medal as the ultimate show of sportsmanship, but the U.S. Olympic Committee told them to take responsibility for their own mistakes and refused even to deliver the request."

For those of you who have missed the news concerning this, a judging error resulted in Paul Hamm being awarded the gold medal in all-around gymnastics. The South Korean who received bronze should have received a higher score and should have been awarded the gold. The South Koreans have appealed and the latest is Paul Hamm being asked to give up his medal in a show of sportsmanship.

My thoughts. First of all, I value sportsmanship. My main dislike about sports today is the in-your-face, trash-talking athlete. I understand celebration. Celebration is fine. High fiving and pile-ups by team mates is celebration. No problem. But some antics go overboard.

But, to be asked to be a good sport, especially by the organization responsible for the judging puts undo pressure on the young athlete, and does not make him a good sport.

The Olympics have long since ceased being an event where sportsmen gathered. Pressure to "win the gold" puts added pressure on judges. Politics sometimes also plays a part. The rewards for athletes who win gold are great, far beyond the gold medal itself. Paul Hamm has already appeared on David Letterman. And being a human endeavor, mistakes will happen, as did in this situation.

Then, I wonder if the international body has sent a similar letter to the South Korean, asking him to be a model of sportsmanship and accept the bronze medal. A look at replays of his routine showed mistakes that should have resulted in his score being two tenths of a point less, which would have resulted in Hamm winning the gold anyway.

If Paul Hamm had decided to give up the gold on his own, it would have been great, in my opinion. If he decides to give it up after this, greater still. But today's benefits to the gold medal winning athlete make that unlikely.

Art Critic
Mood:  happy
Now Playing: News
Topic: Just for Fun
Cleaner thinks modern art is rubbish.

Evidently a janitor at "London's Tate Britain modern art gallery threw out a bag of rubbish which formed part of an artwork because it was thought to be trash...."

Sometimes I share his opinion of modern art. ;^)

This Is Wrong
Mood:  rushed
Now Playing: SportsCenter
Topic: Politics
Graphic Designer Fired After Heckling Bush. I don't care what the reason is. Free Speech is a right. Period.