The US according to the primaries
A nice cartoon from Jack Ohman, The Portland Oregonian shows my feelings about the primary season. The pundits are looking at eliminating the rest of the field after Kerry became the front-runner. All of the candidates "must win" a primary in the next two weeks. Dean is running out of money and his campaign is "in chaos" because he got rid of Trippi and hired Leen.

And what do pundits know? They practically anointed Howard Dean after the Al Gore endorsement. And they had written off Kerry. Shuld we believe anything else they have to say?

Why the importance of the first two states? Americans love "a winner" and our attention spans are not too long. TV, being primarily an entertainment medium, knows this and wants to get things focused on the two main candidates.

NH Aftermath
Listening to the spin. Kerry of course, needs no spin; he's won both.

Dean on CNN: A Solid Second
Dean is done. He has money to keep on for awhile. He ranks no higher than fourth in three of the polls for Feb. 3 (SC, AR, OK).

General Wesley Clark for President - Official Campaign Web Site "Wes Clark fought a hard campaign in New Hampshire, the backyard of two other candidates. His competitive finish in the Granite State positions him well for next week's slate of nation wide primaries." Get real. Only a candidate would consider 12% total vote, 27% behind the winner and 12-13% out of second place, competitive. Clark will at least compete in the next states. He has raised quite a bit of money and is in for awhile. He leads in OK and is statistical dead heat in AR but fourth in SC.

John Edwards: "Thank You New Hampshire...
Thank you voters of New Hampshire! You kept the Edwards momentum incredibly strong and helped us more than triple our support in less than three weeks.
This campaign continues to shoot up." More campaign spin but Edwards is banking on SC where he leads the polls. He's also currently second in OK.

CNN.com - Lieberman: I'm exceeding expectations - Jan. 27, 2004: "'The standard for showing some strength here is to do better than expected. A week ago we were in the low single digits. After a very strong debate performance Senator Lieberman jumped up in most of the tracking polls,' " Lieberman had nothing on his website, which could be significant. He had to be hoping for better than he did. It's hard to talk about "Joementum" with a fifth place finish. Lieberman is no better than fourth in SC, AR and OK

Kucinich and Sharpton are fringe still. Sharpton is strong in SC.

As always, things may change. The other candidates may take the gloves off, now that Kerry has won two contests in a row.

UPDATE: My intention here was not to necessarily predict, but to show how the campaigns were interpreting results. If you listened to them all, you would have thought that all of them won here. Also Ben has added another thoughtful comment and I have responded to it.

UPDATE II: Of course, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Comedy Central had their usual humorous take on the same subject.

Vietnam
It is amazing that almost 30 years after the Vietnam War officially ended with the fall of Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City), Americans are still polarized over it. Only this time, the roles are seemingly reversed. We find Michael Moore, a supporter of Democratic candidate Wesley Clark, accusing Bush of being a deserter (see the article FactCheck.org Bush A Military Deserter? Calm Down, Michael).

You wouldn't find too many Americans any more, I don't think, who would say that we prosecuted the Vietnam War correctly. Some say we shouldn't have been there at all, others that the war was micro-managed by politicians who were afraid of public opinion.

My own personal history is that after initially supporting the war, I became convince that our soldiers should leave, not necessarily because the war was wrong, but because the South Vietnamese seemed more interested in their own personal gain than in the successful prosecution of the war. I was eligible for the draft, but by that Vietnamization of the war was underway and my number was high enough that I was not called.

It seems like until the Vietnam War generation retires, we will fight this battle again and again in some way. This year, as with Clinton before, it's who went to fight and who avoided the draft. Only this time, the one who avoided the draft was a Democrat and this time he's a Republican.

Although it's a false hope, I wish we could put the Vietnam War behind us.

UPDATE: I think we'll probably hear about this again, especially if Kerry or Clark is the nominee.

New Resources
I've recently added two new websites for the politically inclined. So often, because of a media outlet's bias (note again Ben's list), we might not know the real facts of a story. But two sites I've recently come across may aid us to discover the truth. So far, I've detected no bias at either site, but I'll keep a watch on them.

The two sites are CJR Campaign Desk and FactCheck.org.

Abortion
More than 40 million abortions in the US since Roe v. Wade decision by the Supreme Court.

Dean's Scream (not mine although I'm close)
How many more times do I have to watch Howard Dean's attempt to rally his supporters after his disappointing showing in NH. I fail to see what the news media find so fascinating about it. It was completely logical to me.

Just another example of how the news media depends on polls, personalities and pundits rather than issues.

Martin Luther King Jr.
Race relations have come a long way, much of it attributable to Martin Luther King, Jr's work (along with many others, by the way, Thurgood Marshall being one) in the 50's and 60's. But they are definitely not what they should be. But I don't think its pigmentation that is reason, I think its cultural.

Cynthia Tucker wrote about one major problem; that of Black men's attitude toward crime. She says rightly that injustice does insist, but is not the whole reason. She says that many young blacks view incarceration as a rite of passage.

Maybe even more crucial problem is pointed out by Roger Clegg on National Review Online. He writes, "The major problem facing African Americans as a demographic group today is the fact that seven out of ten of black children are born out of wedlock. Just about any social pathology you can name, especially for boys, correlates with growing up in a home where there is no father."

Unfortunately, many African-American leaders would prefer to blame the government and corporations for the problem. If he had lived, would Dr. King have done the same?

Media and campaigns
Looking at the TV newscasts, what are they talking about when they discuss the Democratic campaigns. Polls. Who's accusing whom of not being a good Democrat. Is anyone asking about the issues? Hardly.

After all, how different are the Democratic candidates? They all want to repeal Bush's tax cuts. They all think Bush screwed up in Iraq. Well, not just Iraq but just about everything. They all want health care for everyone. They all think the economy is in the tank. They all are pro-choice, etc. etc. There may be slight differences as to timing, or extent, but not much.

So what's left for the talking heads to talk about? Who slammed whom? Who's numbers are increasing or decreasing? Who misspoke? Whom can the host get to misspeak? Bah!

Lies, all lies!
The local paper carried an editorial by Lee Dreyfus, former governor of Wisconsin. Here is what he said:

"In a speech at the Pentagon, the president described Iraq's weaponry and said that it was 'a rogue state with weapons of mass destruction ready to use them or provide them to terrorists.' For all of you who think the President knowingly lied when he said that, let me add a quote from the vice president who said that Hussein had 'stored away secret supplies of biological weapons and chemical weapons throughout his country.'

"I suppose those of you readers who don't support President Bush or Vice President Cheney simply reject those statements as false, either by their ignorance or design. Let me try to get you to reconsider the charge by pointing out that I was quoting President Clinton and Vice President Gore. The Clinton quote was from a February 1998 speech and the Gore quote from a September 2002 speech."

Margin of Error
Ok could all math-challenged journalists please go here. Journalists talk about so and so "slipping" in the poles (like Howard Dean is "slipping" according to at least Fox News and MSNBC). No they are not slipping because of the Margin of Error. Basically margin of error "means that if you asked a question from this poll 100 times, 95 of those times the percentage of people giving a particular answer would be within 4 points of the percentage who gave that same answer in this poll." For example, here are the results of the last four MSNBC - MSNBC/Reuters Zogby Poll for the top four candidates:

Dean 25% 26% 28% 24%
Gephardt 23% 23% 23% 21%
Kerry 15% 16% 17% 21%
Edwards 14% 12% 14% 15%

So with a margin of error of 4%, Dean's numbers might vary between 21% and 29% based on the first poll. Based on the latest poll, his numbers would vary between 20% and 28%. All of the poll numbers fall in either range. Based on the last poll results, the top four candidates could be in the 19-20% range, hence any candidate could win. Dean numbers could be between 20% and 28%, Gephardt's and Kerry's 17% - 25%, and Edward's 11% to 19%.

According to MSNBC "The latest MSNBC/Reuters Zogby tracking poll shows Dean slipping after gaining over the previous five days of polling in Iowa." Wrong. Dean's numbers are all within the margin of error. The only candidate whose numbers don't fall within the margin of error is John Kerry. Statistically there is NO CHANGE except for Kerry.

And "don't overlook that fact that the margin of error is a 95 percent confidence interval, either. That means that for every 20 times you repeat this poll, statistics say that one time you'll get an answer that is completely off the wall." Kerry's 21% in the latest poll could fit in there.

But Americans (at least the mainstream media) is enthralled with numbers and can't wait for the actual vote to take place, so we poll before and we poll after to try to get a sneak peek.

A Conspiracy?
Obviously, a left-wing conspiracy is causing all these ads for Democratic candidates to appear at the top of my page. :-)

Have a good day!

The Media, a study
Perhaps some of you have seen the report on bias in campaign reporting. Interesting stuff. The full study actually concerns how cable and Internet loom large in fragmented political news universe. Here's the interesting stuff:

First it contrasted how people are learning about the candidates and the campaign from traditional news sources compared to 2000. Less are learning from all tv sources, news magazines and newspapers. More are learning from cable news networks and the internet.

More than one fifth of those under 30, turn to the internet and, get this, Comedy TV shows for their campaign news.

Concerning bias in the media, both Democrats and Republicans feel the media is tilted the other way in coverage. People are evenly split as to whether they believe the media is biased or not.

The study also found that endorsements were more likely to dissuade someone from supporting the candidate as persuading them to do so.

As far as the main source of campaign news, Democrats favor the newspapers and the major networks, while Republicans favor newspapers and the Fox News Channel.

The study also looked at campaign awareness. About a third had heard a lot of Al Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean. Only one sixth knew a lot about Dean's remarks concerning the Confederate flag.

There is much, much more and perhaps after I've digested it more there will be more to write about.

The conclusions I've gain so far is that the Internet is becoming increasingly important source for news, but that people are less knowledgeable about the facts.

Comments to my posts
As I've written before, I appreciate reading people's commnets to my posts. Ben Sutherland commented on two previous posts here and here. Ben had some good things to say and worth reading. Ben's blog is Building a Better World. His essays are longer than mine and range into his personal life, but I am working my way through them. His blogroll (list of blogs on the left side of his web page) does us all a service by including the particular leanings of some of the major bloggers/new services. I will be including Ben's blog in my blogroll and looking at the others for possible inclusion.

One other thing while we on the subjects of blogs. A very useful tool for me has been Bloglines, a free service that lets you subscribe to RSS feeds of your favorite news feeds and blogs, and Bloglines will monitor updates to those feeds. It is web-based and therefore accessible from any machine that can connect to the Internet.

Is homosexuality genetic or learned?
I'm sure Maureen Dowd was not intending this when she quoted this (italics mine):
Op-Ed Columnist: Tizzy Over Lezzies
"The Washington Post reported on Sunday that lesbian love had swept high schools here: You can see this new trend on Friday nights outside Union Station, sweethearts from high schools around the Washington area, some locking lips. . . . These girls pack Ani DiFranco concerts and know Tatu lyrics by heart. Their attention is usually directed exclusively at each other, but not always: a group of girls at a private school in Northwest Washington charge boys $10 to watch the girls make out in front of them."

If homosexuality is genetic as they claim, why is lesbian love "sweeping" high schools and is called a "new trend"? The answer seems obvious to me.

Frogs handed German lifeline
Germany's cash-strapped government is paying 225,000 euros (157,000 pounds) [about $300,000?] to build a tunnel to help frogs avoid the perils of a busy road. Sigh. Need I say more?

The Legislature and the Judiciary
World Magazine's blog reports a Tribune Chronicle article that Ohio drivers will face special yellow license plates with red numbers to show that some of their driving privileges have been revoked.

Would this be another example of what Rehnquist complained about in his State of the Judiciary report on address? If so, then judges should realized the frustration of common citizens upon seeing what we consider lenient sentences and impose sentences that would perhaps cause a change of heart in the people committing the crime.

We wouldn't need this law at all, if the judges would enforce the laws on the books. Dan, in a reply to the World magazine blog quotes the Digest of Ohio Motor Vehicle Laws:

FIRST OFFENSE - at least 72 consecutive hours in jail, court license suspension of six months to three years.

SECOND OFFENSE - at least 10 consecutive days in jail, court license suspension of one to five years.

THIRD OFFENSE - at least 30 consecutive days in jail, court license suspension of one to ten years.

FOURTH OFFENSE - at least 60 consecutive days in jail, court license suspension of three years to permanent revocation.

Plus there are fines up to $10,000.

It's even stricter for underage drinkers. If you are under 21 and drink even one beer and go out for a drive your license gets pulled for two months to a year.

The courts don't enforce the laws, so the people, through their legislators, feel like they have to force them to do it.

Mad Cow Mania
Having tucked my almanac safely out of sight, I'd like to take a look at the Mad Cow Scare. For those of you who've been in hibernation, a cow was discovered to have mad cow disease shortly before Christmas. This was followed by the expected bans of US imported beef by some countries. The cow was traced back to Canada and some 10,000 pounds of beef was recalled. It was found that the cow predated a feed ban now in place that forbids feeding cows with brain and other tissues from slaughtered cows.

The outbreak has led to some needed changes to further protect the food supply.

But i believe many Democrats have gone too far in their zeal to find something they can "pin" Bush with. Kerry's five point plan has one good point, the one that the USDA has implemented. Dean calls for more testing a measure which although he has not checked out yet, says if it costs an average of three cents per pound ought to be done.

Let's get a grip. It was ONE cow. It has been traced. Meat has been recalled. Investigations are continuing. Remedies are being implemented. Let's take a deep breath and have a steak!

The Democratic Candidates
At first, I planned to examine all nine Democratic candidates positions. As I started, I found it took too much of my time and was not all that beneficial. Basically, I think any one the Democrats nominate will be able to be pictured as a tax and spend liberal.

As I've listened to the political debate thus far, I remembered the reason for my disappointment with the political process. The race has narrowed before a vote has been cast. Debates are not about issues, but about who has momentum and who has nominated whom. And I blame both sides. Talk shows are filled, not with substance but with analysis.

But then again, as you look through history, most campaigns have been more about personality than about issues. JQ Adams, elected very similarly to GW Bush, met more opposition than Bush has. Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, the list could go on.

So I will not stop writing. It has been said of Bloggers that we are self-important. Well, I don't care who reads what I write, if anyone. I write to write. If someone reads this and gets involved in any way, great.

Happy Holidays, belatedly, to all.

The Environment
Two articles crossed my path this week on the environment that I thought was interesting. First, evidently the windmills near Altamont Pass, CA are taking a toll on wildlife in particular birds. So much for renewable energy sources. Maybe the Center for Biological Diversity would prefer global warming (see next)?

Secondly, what would we do without another warning about global warming? Cox News Service's Jeff Nesmith wrote in my local paper (no links) an article longer than the one found here "2003 another global hot one" (Atlanta Journal Constitution).

Now I'm not real sure about the threat of global warming. I tend to see it more as cyclical weather patterns. But more research is needed.

Even though I'm not a "tree hugger," I do appreciate the outdoors. I can see places where I grew up and used to play turned into houses, stores, parking lots and apartments. Maybe it's just nostalgia.

The good news just keeps coming for Dean
Survey: Democratic Leaders Prefer Dean.

And the rest of the candidates seem to be scrambling. Kerry Asks Supporter to Stick With Him. But is Kerry now down to one supporter in Iowa?

One more recent headline: Candidates Try to Fight Howard Dean Surge

The question still remains: Will Dean be a formidable candidate or will his freewheeling, angry style, if he keeps it in the general election, be an easy target for Bush/Cheney. My personal observation is that no one among the top candidates is immune from weaknesses. And anything can happen in the next year that would cause Bush's popularity to fall - continued body bags being the most likely right now.